How Divided Are We?
Good News/Bad News in New AP Poll
"Americans are less divided than you think" — this was the lede for much of the news coverage of a new AP poll. The poll did indeed have some encouraging results. Similar to More in Common's "Hidden Tribes" report, it showed supermajorities of Americans strongly agree on most core democratic principles. But there were some discouraging numbers as well.
"Yes, deep divisions exist on some topics. But on almost every topic of monthly outrage, it's a fringe view — or example — amplified by the loudest voices on social media and politicians driving it," Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen wrote in an article about the poll for Axios.
When asked about the importance of certain freedoms, 74% said the right to vote was "extremely important," with another 17% answering "very important." Similarly, majorities chose "extremely important" for many other core rights — equal protection (70%), freedom of speech (64%), privacy (62%), and religion (60%).
However, other civil liberties were more contested, especially when broken down by party identification.
The right to keep and bear arms found the most disagreement, of course. Sixty percent of Republicans said that right was "extremely important," though you might be surprised to learn that a significant number of Democrats, 37%, agreed. Though much of our disagreement over the 2nd Amendment regards the limits of that freedom and/or how the wording of the amendment should be interpreted, which is admittedly confusing.
The most disturbing part of the poll was the lower levels of support for freedom of the press, especially among Republicans. Only 49% of respondents answered that freedom of the press is "extremely important," including 60% of Democrats and 45% of Republicans.
I suspect there are many factors contributing to this lower level of support for press freedom. Many likely perceive the press as a source of our divisiveness, and sometimes it is. And Republicans view the press as mostly biased against them. Plus, there have been many attacks on the press from former President Donald Trump and other Republican leaders in recent years. It can even be difficult to define the boundaries of "the press" these days, given that so many people get their news and information from social media and influencers with handles like "catturd."
But there's a reason authoritarian regimes take control of the press. We can't have a well-functioning democracy without press freedom. The American press has many current struggles. Just this year, there have been numerous stories of layoffs at major outlets, and local news is rapidly depleting. Many communities across the country are "news deserts," or lack any local news organizations. These problems must be addressed if we're going to keep our democracy. We need both a renewed commitment to support press freedom while at the same time supporting good journalism.
What Else We're Reading
Politico: “What Liberals Get Wrong About ‘White Rural Rage’ — Almost Everything: The ‘White Rural Rage’ narrative gets the research wrong. I know, because some of it is mine.”
But don’t be misled. The publication and widespread celebration of White Rural Rage among progressive circles is doing something different than those post-2016 post-mortems. It is not an attempt to understand the needs and concerns of rural America. Instead, it’s an outpouring of frustration with rural America that might feel cathartic for liberals, but will only serve to further marginalize and demonize a segment of the American population that already feels forgotten and dismissed by the experts and elites.
The people doing the work of protecting democracy in rural America recognized this immediately. The morning of the MSNBC interview, I woke up to a mountain of messages and threads from rural organizers, community activists and local officials from across the country. Each one was distressed over what they considered the authors’ harsh and hurtful accusations about the communities they cherish and strive to uplift.
What seemingly set apart this book is that the authors claimed to have data backing up their assertions. “We provide the receipts,” Schaller said in the interview. What is their data, my friends and colleagues asked, and why do they get it so wrong?
Imagine my surprise when I picked up the book and saw that some of that research was mine.
Which Trump lies stick? Republicans believe some falsehoods more than they did six years ago, our poll finds.
Both in 2018 and this year, respondents were asked whether unemployment was near a 50-year low. This was a true statement by Trump in 2018, when he was president — and it is true today, when Biden is president. The unemployment rate, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, reached a low of 3.5 percent in 2019 under Trump and 3.4 percent in 2023 under Biden — levels not seen since 1969. The unemployment rate just before the 2018 poll was 3.8 percent; it was 3.9 percent just before the 2024 poll — both near 50-year lows at the time.
Similar percentages — about 1 in 4 — rejected this fact in both surveys, but perceptions have splintered by partisanship. The share of Democrats rejecting the claim dropped from 33 percent in 2018 to 20 percent today, while the share of Republicans rejecting it grew from 19 percent to 37 percent. Among strong Trump approvers, rejection of the claim more than doubled, from 19 percent to 45 percent.
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